Each year in mid-August, the USDA releases their crop production estimates for the top seven apple producing states. Following that release, USApple puts together its Industry Outlook report which provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by USApple Vice President of Insights and Analytics, Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces – from political headwinds to weather events – that shape the U.S. apple industry.
Chris presents the report at the annual Outlook conference, and then USApple members meet to discuss the USDA estimates and adjust them accordingly. Bolstering the government data with up-to-date information on growing conditions and adverse weather events that may impact the quality and quantity of the incoming crop makes the USApple estimate the most extensive available anywhere.
According to USDA, the largest apple states will produce a combined 264.5 million bushels – a 2.2% decrease from last year’s final revised totals. Based on input from growers across the major U.S. apple regions, USApple’s estimate for the top seven states is 241.8 million bushels – a difference of 22.7 million bushels or 8.6%.
The size of production outside of the top seven apple growing states is significant and growing. States like North Carolina and Wisconsin now have more bearing acreage than Oregon (one of the states included in the USDA sample) with Ohio rapidly gaining, too. USApple has been estimating production from these other states since USDA discontinued its more comprehensive data collection in 2018.
By adding back production from these other states, the new USApple 2024/25 forecast increases to 259.5 million bushels – a decline of 10.1% from last year’s production totals and down 3.6% from the five-year production average.
At the varietal level:
- Gala is expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced, accounting for around 17% of the U.S. apple market.
- Red Delicious (12.3%)
- Granny Smith (10%)
- Honeycrisp (9.8%)
- Fuji (9.4%)
Read more about variety and region dynamics in the report.
These estimates will be reevaluated in December 2024 when inventory from the USAppleTracker monthly storage report will be used to gauge their appropriateness. The final production figures will not be known until the USDA releases its revised figures in May 2025.